Life is a Supermartingale

RESEARCH

Probability/Statistics/Econometrics/ML/Finance

Publication

Manuscript

  • A New Look at Equity Premium Forecasts (2025)
  • Good Beta, Bad Beta, and Beyond: A Robust Beta Decomposition (2025)
  • New Test for Conditional Independence with High-dimensional Dependent Data (with T.-M. Huang, 2025)
  • A Signal-to-noise-based Adaptive Lasso (2025)
  • Optimal Model Averaging for Ultra-high Dimensional Quantile Regression with Diverging Covariates (2023)
  • A Functional Stochastic Volatility Correlated Jump Model with an Application to High-frequency Financial Data (with T.-M. Huang, 2021)
  • On Minimax Rates of Convergence for Functional Time Series Regressions (with T.-M. Huang, 2021)
  • A Self-normalized Large Deviation for Poisson Randomly-indexed Branching Processes (2020)
  • On Self-normalized Central Limit Theorems for Compound Poisson Processes under Infinite Variances (with L.-C. Chen, 2019)

Work in Progress

  • Projected Model Averaging for High-dimensional Dependent Data
  • Local Projection Averaging Estimator
  • De-correlating and Debiased Inference for High-dimensional Time-Series Predictive Regressions (with T.-M. Huang)
  • Optimal Model Averaging for Predictive Quantile Regression with Highly-Persistent Covariates
  • A Simple Value-at-risk Decomposition for Stock Returns using High-order Expansions (with Ethan Chiang)

Technical Note

  • A Nonparametric Likelihood-based Blockwise Bootstrapping Inference for Possibly Nonstationary Dependent Data
  • A Nonparametric IV Unit Root Test with a Known Change Point
  • Uniform Convergence Rate for Multivariate Functional Delta Method

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